TEXAS — Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are likely Friday evening across western Texas, and into the west.
A more powerful shortwave with 40-50 kt mid to upper level winds will move across northern Mexico and into west Texas during the day, and into central Texas by Saturday morning.
This feature will provide large scale lift, with cooling aloft helping to maintain steep lapse rates.
In the low-levels, southeast surface winds across Texas will maintain at least 50’s Fahrenheit dewpoints.
Westward to the dryline, will remain nearly stationary during the day due to heating/mixing.
The result will be a large area of instability, with shear profiles becoming more favorable with time for severe storms capable of hail and wind.
Strong heating will result in an uncapped atmosphere over western Texas, with scattered storms likely to form after 4pm near the dryline which will be only weakly convergent.
Hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible.
Storm coverage will increase during the evening, and a few supercells are possible with large hail.
Storm outflow will also increase, and linear structures capable of damaging winds may result.
Large-scale lift will persist overnight, and a few severe storms may progress perhaps as far east as I-35 depending on propagation speed.
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