The most likely area for severe storms is across west-central Texas after midnight. Scattered large hail should be the primary threat with all hazards possible.
West-central TX… An approaching shortwave trough and associated low-level mass response will support strengthening warm/moist advection over and north of the surface warm-frontal zone throughout tonight. Increasingly moist parcels will be isentropically lifted to LFC beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates, contributing to strengthening buiyancy in the preconvective air mass. Forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over much of the area, decreasing northward from the boundary, amid 45-60 kt effective shear. To the extent any convection can develop/extend into the warm sector, the greatest values of buoyancy and theta-e will be available along with surface-based effective-inflow parcels, even with surface dew points from 57-61 F. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach 1000-1500 J/kg, along with increased low-level SRH associated with backed flow beneath the LLJ. 12Z HREF guidance has trended stronger with near-frontal warm sector convection across the Edwards Plateau and Concho valley. Accordingly, significant large hail , tornado, and wind probabilities have been increased in these regions.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Apr 12, 2019
Tommie Carter JR.
Texas Breaking News – Chief Weather Forecaster
Texas: Severe weather is expected tonight and tomorrow, including the potential for flooding and winter weather, so be sure to closely monitor weather conditions in your area and exercise caution on the roads. https://t.co/DLJ2ZSnvg1 #txwx
— Texas DPS (@TxDPS) April 12, 2019
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