Storms possible after midnight across west-central Texas

The most likely area for severe storms is across west-central Texas after midnight. Scattered large hail should be the primary threat with all hazards possible.

West-central TX… An approaching shortwave trough and associated low-level mass response will support strengthening warm/moist advection over and north of the surface warm-frontal zone throughout tonight. Increasingly moist parcels will be isentropically lifted to LFC beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates, contributing to strengthening buiyancy in the preconvective air mass. Forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over much of the area, decreasing northward from the boundary, amid 45-60 kt effective shear. To the extent any convection can develop/extend into the warm sector, the greatest values of buoyancy and theta-e will be available along with surface-based effective-inflow parcels, even with surface dew points from 57-61 F. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach 1000-1500 J/kg, along with increased low-level SRH associated with backed flow beneath the LLJ. 12Z HREF guidance has trended stronger with near-frontal warm sector convection across the Edwards Plateau and Concho valley. Accordingly, significant large hail , tornado, and wind probabilities have been increased in these regions.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0255 PM CDT Fri Apr 12, 2019

Tommie Carter JR.

Texas Breaking News – Chief Weather Forecaster

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